Cox Automotive forecasts Hyundai's third-quarter sales up 6.5% and Ford's down 7.1%. Toyota is also closing on GM as hybrids gain with gasoline at $4.48 a gallon.
The gap between Ford and Hyundai in U.S. sales this quarter is expected to be about 7,249 vehicles. For the first time, it is expected to favor Hyundai.
Cox Automotive forecast on Thursday that Hyundai will sell 511,421 new vehicles in the U.S. from July through September, up 6.5% from a year earlier. Ford is expected to sell 504,172, down 7.1%. If the forecast holds, Hyundai would become No. 3 in U.S. sales, behind General Motors and Toyota.
Ford is carrying two handicaps. Production of its F-Series pickups has been disrupted by two supplier fires last year. And like GM, it has few hybrids to sell into a market where they are in demand.
Hybrids have gained as gasoline has become more expensive. Gasoline now averages $4.48 a gallon nationally, per AAA. At that price, Detroit's core products, big trucks and SUVs, are harder to sell. GM's only hybrid is a version of the Corvette. Ford's hybrids include the Maverick and F-150 pickups.
"If you don't have vehicles to catch [consumers] where they are, then there are other manufacturers that likely would step into the gap," said Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox.
The same dynamic is narrowing the race at the top. Cox expects GM's third-quarter sales to fall 5.2% to 671,706 while Toyota, the hybrid leader, rises 2.2% to 642,707. That would leave GM ahead by about 29,000 vehicles for the quarter. Year to date, GM's lead over Toyota is under 121,100 vehicles. Cox flagged last quarter that Toyota could finish the year ahead, something it has managed only once, in 2021, when supply chain problems disrupted production.
Hyundai, whose U.S. push includes its Genesis luxury brand and sibling Kia, says the milestone is not the goal. "We focus on delivering, the best, safe products to the customer with the highest possible quality," Chief Executive José Muñoz said last month. "And we end up achieving unbelievable goals."
Detroit's product choices are pointing elsewhere. GM, Ford and Stellantis, the parent of Chrysler, are leaning back into V-8 engines for big pickups and SUVs while the Trump administration loosens emissions and mileage rules. "I think that's probably one of the callouts for the domestics is that they have made some interesting decisions around product," Keating said. Cox expects Stellantis' third-quarter sales to slip 1.3%, with full-year sales up 2.8%.
The overall market is holding up better than expected. Cox now expects 16.1 million new-vehicle sales in 2026, about 2% more than it forecast before. "The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient," said Jeremy Robb, Cox's chief economist.
Shares of Ford fell about 1.4% and GM about 1.9% on Thursday.
When automakers report third-quarter sales, the actual Ford and Hyundai figures will confirm or reverse the forecast, and Toyota's number will settle how much of GM's annual lead is left heading into the last quarter.